ride-or-dump

What to do with Mark Reynolds

I certainly didn’t expect the torrid start that Reynolds got off to. And I was foolish enough to think he had figured it out and could hit at a better clip that he had in the past. We all know that over time, everything, everyone regresses to the mean. And Reynolds has.

His career slash line is .235/.330/.473 and while as recently as May 9th his OPS was 1.013, his year to date slash line is .229/.309/.442. The slump that he’s been in since the middle of May has decimated his numbers and now he’s fallen back on pace to approach 200 strikeouts this season. If we draw the arbitrary endpoint of May 15th, he was on pace to strikeout about 160 times with an estimated slash line of .271/.362/.581 with around 45 HR, 140 RBI and 95 R. No question we’d all prefer the Mark Reynolds of April and the first half of May. But what we’ll get the rest of the way is closer to the post May 15th player.

I was fortunate to pick him up in my shallow home league on April 8th, and have enjoyed most of the stats that he’s provided. But for the past month he’s been dragging down my team. Feel free to laugh and point at the dope who got suckered in by Mark Reynolds hitting and getting on base. That’s me… I’ll own it. I should have tried to deal him at the beginning of May. I didn’t. I waited, trying to squeeze every last HR and RBI out of him. And now. I’m stuck with him, as I assume some of you are. I don’t feel great about cutting him and losing some serious pop out of my lineup. But I can’t in good conscience keep trotting him and his 0/4 nights out while my team languishes.

It’s decision time. Who can I find to replace him? I have my eye on a few third basemen who aren’t widely owned and can give me some much needed counting numbers (even though they won’t ever come close to replacing his power). The number in parenthesis is his ownership in ESPN standard leagues.

  • Nolan Arenado (26.4)
    Arenado got the call up at the end of Apri. While he struggled a bit at first he’s brought his slash line up to .268/.307/.441 and plays in a very potent lineup.
  • Anthony Rendon (21.9)
    Another rookie. After his brief spell with the club in late April/early May, he was sent down. He was recalled on June 5 and has been raking every since. He’s slashing .444/.474/.694 in 9 games since being called up.
  • Brett Lawrie (35.9)
    If you can afford to stash him on your DL or have a deep enough bench, he’s a good bet to return late June/early July and will slot right back into the Blue Jays lineup.

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