Ride the Slump or Dump the Chump: Adam Jones

adam-jonesObviously we’re not talking about dropping Adam Jones. Hell, on ESPN and Yahoo (and maybe others) he’s on the undroppable list, so even if you wanted to, you couldn’t drop him. He’s an elite player but, after a very nice start to Adam Jones’ 2013 season, the month of June didn’t go very well for the Orioles center fielder.

After the first 2 months of the season, at the end of May, Jones was slashing .319/.347/.534 with 11 home runs, 37 RBI, 42 runs scored and 8 stolen bases. He was on track to follow up a 2012 season that saw him emerge as an elite player. In 2012 he placed 6th in MVP voting after putting up a .287/.334/.505 slash line with 32 homers. After his hot start to the season Jones was on pace for 33 home runs, 109 RBI, 124 runs, and 24 steals. That’s getting it done. Over the first 2 months of the season Jones’ BABIP was a robust .356, since June 1, his BABIP has plummeted to .265. His career BABIP is .317 so we will see his batted ball numbers settle back toward that number for the season.

1st half 2nd half
R 45 41
HR 13 9
RBI 44 35
SB 7 6
AVG .287 .268

Let’s also look to see how his splits look for the remaining months of the season. I took his monthly splits and divided them by his games played to get his per game stats for the first three and last three months of the season. I then multiplied them by 80 games to get the numbers in the table. As you can see, his production drops off in each category. Most significantly in home runs (30% drop) and runs batted in (21% drop). I believe that Adam Jones should be owned in every league, but the numbers are telling me that if I can sell him for near full value to either fill a need or just to find a replacement who may perform better down the stretch. Go ahead and pull the trigger on that deal.

Some guys that you might want to target are Jay Bruce, Shin Soo Choo, and even a struggling Justin Upton. I do still like Jones, but in a game where 1 home run can make the difference in your league, trading him to maximize your return might make the most sense for you.

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Players mentioned in this post
Adam Jones
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Jay Bruce
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Justin Upton
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Shin-Soo Choo
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